Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
