Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
